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mt10"> <h1 class="title-show">期貨中國專訪張仲?。杭際醴治鼉拖褚窖У惱鋃舷低?/h1> <div class="fix box-share"> <a class="f14" target="_blank" style="color: #189050;"> <img style="margin-top:-3px;" src="//www.016515.live//images/default/bo.png" width="20" height="20" /> 最新高手視頻!</a> <a class="c_be_1" href="//www.016515.live/" target="_blank">七禾網</a> <span class="ml10">時間:2012-05-09 15:41:18</span> <span class="ml10">來源:期貨中國</span> <span class="ml10"></span> <div class="wd80 r"> <div class="bdsharebuttonbox"> <a href="#" class="bds_more" data-cmd="more"></a> <a href="#" class="bds_tqq" data-cmd="tqq"></a> <a href="#" class="bds_weixin" data-cmd="weixin"></a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="mt10"> </div> <div class="box-show"> <table width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td width="100%"> <div class="box-show-new"><p> <a href="//www.016515.live/">体球网即时比分足球比分篮球比分竞彩比分手机比分</a> www.016515.live </p><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 255); font-family: 宋體; font-size: 14px; line-height: 28px; text-indent: 28px;">七禾網注:嘉賓回答僅代表其本人觀點,不代表七禾網的觀點及推薦。金融投資風險叢生,愿七禾網用戶理性謹慎。</span></p><p><img src="//www.016515.live//attachments/201205/09/7f2828203cfbafef83c3192e4dd96478.jpg" alt="張仲健-內容.jpg"/><br/></p><p><strong class="ccaw">張仲健</strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw"><br/></strong></p><p>業內資深職業投資人。期貨程序化交易實踐者。1992年開始進入股票市場,期貨市場,參與過國債現貨與期貨、商品期貨、恒生指數期貨、外匯交易,有較大資金操作經驗。能夠理性地對市場做出判斷,多年來盈利穩定。在期貨市場的交易理念是:“右側交易,適時獲利,堅決止損”。</p><p><br/></p><p>張老師在文華財經的平臺上開發了“鱷魚圖”,以簡單、清晰、明確的交易信號,合理地詮釋了金融市場上的價格運動規律。</p><p><br/></p><p><span style="font-family:楷體_GB2312">訪談精彩語錄:</span></p><p><span style="font-family:楷體_GB2312"><br/></span></p><p><strong class="ccaw">(股市)賺錢效應在下降,盈利難度增加。</strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw">(期市)“羊”的比例在下降,“狼”的比例在增加。</strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw">程序化交易,它既是一門技術也是一門藝術。</strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw">做期貨,趨勢來了進場,當能量衰減就選擇退場,并不是一定要等到反向信號出來。</strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw">我主張計算機輔助交易,不等于全自動交易。</strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw">交易的實質是在做概率游戲。</strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw">價格的運行既有隨機性也有一定的規律。</strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw">K線是一門語言,你只有掌握了才能與它交流。</strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw">通過程序化交易的學習,你能提高與市場交流的能力。</strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw">我個人覺得程序化交易并不死板,程序化交易本身就是一種智慧。</strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw">實際上價格是有規律的,可以把價格看成大于零的位移,它和速度、加速度有關。首先要判斷方向,其次要判斷能量,當方向、速度、加速度都一致,這時就可以放大膽子交易。</strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw">做技術分析就像醫學</strong><strong style="text-indent: 2em; ">里的一套診斷系統。</strong></p><p><strong style="text-indent: 2em; "><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw">發生突發重大事件時也可以對交易系統進行干預。不明朗可以先退出觀望。</strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw">資金量在100萬以上的應該關注3個以上的品種。資金量在5萬以下關注1-2個品種就可以。50萬只做股指期貨也不錯。</strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw">全自動交易對各方面的要求高一點,相對來說半自動的模型好寫一些。</strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw">鱷魚交易法則認為市場70%到85%是震蕩的,15%到30%是有趨勢的,在沒有趨勢的前提下就休息,有趨勢的時候就交易。</strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw">鱷魚交易法則的核心是“市場告訴我們什么,我們就做什么”,洛氏霍克交易法的核心是做相對確定的交易,盡量不發生交易虧損。</strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw">程序化要穩定收益一定要多品種多周期。</strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw">能量是領先于價格的。</strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw">做減法的指標是領先指標,做加法的是滯后指標。</strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw">沒有一套系統能解決所有的交易問題。</strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw">把握不大的交易倉位要嚴格控制。當盲雞行情來了,就應該放大倉位,但最好不要拼死一博。</strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw">用模型組合與時間周期組合解決模型失效問題。</strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw">這個市場明星很多,壽星不多。能掙大錢是他們的福氣,我不會眼紅。</strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw">這個市場如果老老實實做肯定能有點盈利,就怕隨便亂做。</strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw">我認為鱷魚跟海龜結合起來比較好。</strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw"><br/></strong></p><p><strong class="ccaw"><br/></strong></p><p><span style="font-family:楷體_GB2312"><strong class="ccaw">期貨中國1、</strong>張老師您好,感謝您在百忙之中接受期貨中國網的專訪。您從92年開始進入股票期貨市場,這些年來,您感覺中國股市的最大變化是什么?中國期市的最大變化是什么?</span></p><p><br/></p><p><strong class="ccaw">張仲?。?/strong>中國股票市場這幾年變化很大,發展很快,上市公司數量巨增,<strong class="ccaw">市場賺錢效應在下降,盈利難度增加。</strong></p><p><br/></p><p>中國期貨市場發展也很快,上了許多新品種,市場參與者素質明顯提高。<strong class="ccaw">市場中“羊”的比例在下降,“狼”的比例在增加</strong>,交易手段與方法豐富了許多。</p><p><br/></p><p><strong class="ccaw"><br/></strong></p><p><span style="font-family:楷體_GB2312"><strong class="ccaw">期貨中國2</strong>、您從哪一年開始研究程序化交易?您現在是否所有的交易都執行程序化指令?</span></p><p><br/></p><p><strong class="ccaw">張仲?。?/strong>我是2003年開始接觸到程序化交易。我個人推崇計算機輔助交易。我不會執行所有的程序化交易指令。</p><p><br/></p><p><span style="font-family:楷體_GB2312"><strong class="ccaw">期貨中國:</strong>請問您為什么選擇性地執行指令?</span></p><p><br/></p><p>張仲?。閡膊皇峭耆庋?,比如說我現在跟你認識,我只要見到你,我就能知道你叫沈良,但是我用個模型識別就很困難了,這個模型我也不一定做得出來。<strong class="ccaw">程序化交易,它既是一門技術也是一門藝術</strong>,有些東西可能一目了然,但是要寫成程序就很困難,而且各人的條件不同,有些人的計算機水平好一點,有些人數理水平好一點,從圖形轉化成數字相對困難。一般的期貨投資者,我主張用趨勢模型??梢災蔥腥遠?,趨勢來了,讓它自動進場。一般來說<strong class="ccaw">做期貨,趨勢來了進場,當能量衰減就選擇退場,并不是一定要等到反向信好出來</strong>,等反向信號出來可能原來趨勢已經破壞,兩頭的損失比較大,中間賺的比較小,甚至兩邊一減利潤就沒了。小周期做趨勢的模型做出來總是虧錢的多,因為小周期趨勢不明確,被來回洗的概率高。所以進場的時候比較順利地進去,進去了感覺不舒服了就出來,從這個角度我不主張完全按信號執行,有方向信號就進去,沒有到止損也可以出來,我認為這樣的交易方法比較好,所以<strong class="ccaw">我主張計算機輔助交易,不等于全自動交易</strong>。</p><p><br/></p><p><br/></p><p><span style="font-family:楷體_GB2312"><strong class="ccaw">期貨中國3、</strong>您為什么選擇程序化交易?程序化交易的好處有哪些?</span></p><p><br/></p><p><strong class="ccaw">張仲?。?/strong>豐富自己的交易,提高對市場認知水平。<strong class="ccaw">交易的實質是在做概率游戲</strong>。<strong class="ccaw">價格的運行既有隨機性也有一定的規律。</strong>通過對市場價格的研究能發現其中的規律。<strong class="ccaw">K線是一門語言,你只有掌握了才能與它交流。通過程序化交易的學習,你能提高與市場交流的能力</strong>。現在的市場中有人走入程序化研究的誤區,希望能找到一個模型戰勝市場。更有一些人搞偽程序化交易。</p><p><br/></p><p><span style="font-family:楷體_GB2312"><strong class="ccaw">期貨中國:</strong>有些人在搞偽程序化交易,請問什么叫做“偽程序化交易”?</span></p><p><br/></p><p><strong class="ccaw">張仲?。?/strong>他可能以程序化的名義去吸引客戶,并不是用程序交易去做交易。有兩種情況,第一種,過度模擬過去的歷史數據做出來的模型,未來未必適用,但能忽悠人。第二種,在模型里使用未來函數,測試很好,看上起效益很好,然后去吸引客戶。另外,有一些人打著程序化交易的旗號,直接在圖上標上這個地方買那個地方賣,這種畫個信號就算程序化交易,對實戰沒有意義,甚至起到了欺騙的作用。所以我把這些情況定義為偽程序化交易。</p><p><br/></p><p><br/></p><p><span style="font-family:楷體_GB2312"><strong class="ccaw">期貨中國4、</strong>有人說程序化交易死板,抹煞了人的智慧和能動性,對此您怎么看?</span></p><p><br/></p><p><strong class="ccaw">張仲?。何腋鋈司醯貿絳蚧灰撞⒉凰臘?,程序化交易本身就是一種智慧。</strong>這個市場許多虧損都是隨意交易的結果。</p><p><br/></p><p><span style="font-family:楷體_GB2312"><br/></span></p><p><span style="font-family:楷體_GB2312"><strong class="ccaw">期貨中國5、</strong>一套完整的程序化交易系統應該包括哪幾個部分?您覺得其中哪個部分最為重要?</span></p><p><br/></p><p><strong class="ccaw">張仲?。?/strong>首先要對市場的狀態有個客觀的評判,在客觀評判市場的基礎上,有完善的資金管理系統與策略管理系統。</p><p><br/></p><p>哪一個部分最重要則很難說,首先如果你沒有一套客觀的系統,就不會盈利,第二在客觀評價市場的基礎上,實際上<strong class="ccaw">價格是有規律的,可以把價格看成大于零的位移,它和速度、加速度有關。首先要判斷方向,其次要判斷能量,當方向、速度、加速度都一致,這時就可以放大膽子交易。我們做技術分析就像醫學里的一套診斷系統</strong>,首先要診斷才知道情況怎么樣,然后考慮該怎么做。也像打仗,首先分析敵我之間力量的對比,包括地形、地貌,然后決定什么時候打,如果錯了怎么退出來。一定要說哪個部分重要,很難量化,有人說技術分析占10%,資金管理70%,我覺得這都不可取,就像一場戰役,只要一個環節出問題,就會很困難。就像毛主席過去打仗,他弱的時候就5比1和你打,一旦不是這個比例就撤,到了解放戰爭后期,就無所謂幾比幾了,誰贏了就是誰的天下,有必要放手一搏,所以有的時候資金量可以大一點,有的時候資金量要小一點,一定要量化,我覺得很困難。</p><p><br/></p><p><strong class="ccaw"><br/></strong></p><p><span style="font-family:楷體_GB2312"><strong class="ccaw">期貨中國6、</strong>一般來說,程序化交易者是不看基本面的,您是否完全不看基本面?基本面信息的變化,對您的交易會不會產生影響?</span></p><p><br/></p><p><strong class="ccaw">張仲?。?/strong>我不是生活在真空中,基本面的重大變化一定會在程序化交易中表現出來。<strong class="ccaw">發生突發重大事件時也可以對交易系統進行干預。不明朗可以先退出觀望。</strong></p><p><br/></p><p><br/></p> <div class="tr mt20">責任編輯:翁建平</div> </div> </td> </tr> </table> <div id="pager"><div class="pages box-page space tc"><em>Total:3</em><strong class="ccaw">1</strong><a href="//www.016515.live//article/105450-2.html">2</a><a href="//www.016515.live//article/105450-3.html">3</a></div></div> </div> <p class="f12 c_gy_2 mt10">【免責聲明】本文僅代表作者本人觀點,與本網站無關。本網站對文中陳述、觀點判斷保持中立,不對所包含內容的準確性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保證。請讀者僅作參考,并請自行承擔全部責任。</p> <div class="box-wenxin fix mt10"> <div class="l wd150 tc"><img src="//www.016515.live//images/default/7hcn-niuwx1.png" alt="七禾網" width="70" height="70" /><p>七禾網</p></div> <div class="l wd150 tc"><img src="//www.016515.live//images/default/7hcn-jzj.png" alt="價值君" width="70" 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